IGC: new June 2015 estimate the world grain harvest by 2015/16
The monthly crop estimate of the International Grains Council (IGC) differs only in a few changes from the may estimate.
The has the IGC to 2 million global grain harvest t to 1.966 million. t down set. World consumption should stay the same up at 1,981 million tonnes. At the end of the marketing year, the IGC to 4 million tonnes lower estimates a stocks than in the previous month. Nevertheless remains the global supply of 21.3% closing stock is still above the multi-annual average consumption, but is one percentage point below the record result of the previous year.
Global wheat production reduced the previous month result to 4 million tonnes to 711 million tonnes. For weather-related damage in the EU (- 1.2 million tonnes) held liable in India (2 million tons) and Australia (- 1.5 million tonnes). The wheat consumption was withdrawn by 2 million tonnes. The final inventory falls to 4 million tonnes to 196 million tonnes. So the supply situation in the wheat sector with 27.5%, closing stock becomes the consumption (stock to use ratio) only slightly smaller than in the previous year.
The global corn production is slightly higher the IGC to 2 million tons. 963 million tonnes is the harvest volume but well below the estimated consumption of 976 million tonnes. The high initial stocks make up the difference.
Overall the IGC is estimate, that the global supply situation 2015/16 grain similar to comfortably fails as in the previous year. In particular the high initial data provide compensation of the weather conditions affected crops in key growing areas, insofar as they are so far. .
Harvest estimates of the IGC are normally among the FAO and of the USDA as a result of other survey and evaluation methods. Comparing the changes and overall statements but taking into account a reasonable treasure bug all forecast institutes are quite similar results.
At the present time is still critical to note that a El Nino year with special risks is. Therefore, results subject to harvest not yet foreseeable, impairments are to interpret. The IGC forecast is regarded as a more guidance on the assessment of the coming year of grain.
