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IGC estimates on the global grain market in the medium term lower supply levels

IGC forecast to the cereal market up to 2019/20

In its annual update and extension of the projections for the global grain market , the International Grains Council (IGC) has published a revised version. The time frame was extended until the year 2019/20 .

The global cereal production has over the years according to the IGC 2013/14 and 2014/15 a first high point reached or exceeded. For the two following years 2015/16 and 2016/17 one of significantly lower results comes from. Background is the return of far above-average favorable harvest results of the past years to more average income conditions. The framework conditions in the Black Sea region play an important role for 2015/16.

During the remaining period up to 2019/20 average yield and harvest gains.

Page fit easily with a time delay on the global Nachfrages the quantity the respective harvest fluctuations largely on. On average, an annual increase in use is assumed by 20 to 25 million tonnes. The growth rates are in all 3 areas of the human diet about the feed sector to find to industrial use.

The wheat sector shows the comparatively lowest increases in the period up to 2019/20. The harvest result with estimated 718 million tonnes in 2014/15 is only slightly lower than the predicted amount of 732 million tonnes in the year 2019/20. The consumption of wheat close with 731 million tonnes. The end stocks show slight downward trends in the wheat sector.

The corn sector should reach in the year last forecast year 2014/15 to 1,025 million tons a production increase of around 980 million tonnes. Measured on the consumption growth especially in the feed and industrial sectors these quantities not sufficient to maintain the level of stock. The closing stock at the corn will fall after the IGC estimate of 194 million tonnes to 158 million tonnes.

For the other cereals are only minor changes to be expected.

Overall, it is to know that for the next examination period the production increases less than the consumption figures. Thus, a reduction of closing stock is directly connected. Reduced stock levels, however, mean a relative shortage resulting in attractive prices.

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