Apr. 2022: IGC estimates world grain supply 2022/23 lower In its April 2022 issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the global grain harvest 2022/3 to be -12 million t lower at 2,275 million t than in the Previous year. Global consumption is estimated at 2,302 million t ; this corresponds to an increase of +21 million t compared to the previous year. The arithmetical excess stocks fall by 27 million t to 581 million t . The global supply figure decreases to 25.2% ending inventory for consumption. In previous years the figure was between 30 and 28%. The supplies last for about 92 days, 3 years ago it was 105 days. The IGC estimates the global wheat harvest at 780 million tons , still at a record level. Compared to the previous year, the take-back is only 1 million t. Consumption is expected to increase from 778 million t to 785 million t in the coming year .The inventories decrease by -5 million t to 277 million t , the supply figure falls from 36.8 to 35.3% final stock to consumption. The IGC estimates the global corn harvest at 1,197 million t or -13 million t less than in the previous year. Global corn consumption is expected to increase by around +17 million t to 1,218 million t compared to the previous year. Global inventories are expected to fall by around -21 million t to 265 million t in the course of the 2022/23 corn marketing year. The supply figure goes back to around 21.7% at the end of the consumption period. Just 3 years ago, the excess stocks were around 26% measured against consumption. In the future, global supplies will last for 79 days, 3 years ago it was 94 days. Overall , it can be stated that the supply situation in 2022/23 will be significantly lower than in previous years.Less production and likely higher consumption will lead to a significant reduction in inventories. With the supply situation becoming more critical as a result of the war, security of supply is becoming increasingly important for market and price developments. The currently high price level, with quotations twice as high as compared to multi-year average values in the past, underscores this assessment. Price increases also come from high freight rates.
