IGC estimates global grain supply lower than USDA

IGC estimates world grain supply worse than USDA Following last week's crop estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the International Grain Council (IGC) has now followed up with an updated forecast. The collection and estimation methods used by the two institutions are different, which is why the results differ. In both cases, increases compared to the previous year are assumed, but to different extents and differentiated end results.

The USDA estimates the increase in harvest almost twice as high as the IGC about a week later. However, the increase in consumption is about 17% higher for the IGC estimate than for the US Department of Agriculture.The IGC therefore comes to a trend towards a reduction in this year's supply situation, measured in terms of the supply number. The USDA study, on the other hand, provides an arithmetical supply improvement. Stock exchange prices reacted promptly. After the USDA publication last week, there were price setbacks in the listings, while in the middle of the week the stock exchange prices were already marching in the opposite direction again. The current grain marketing year will still be good for a few surprises. With a deficit between production and consumption of 20 million tons, the IGC estimates the supply situation in the global wheat market to be considerably more critical than the USDA with a difference of only 3 million tons. Larger differences exist in the assessment of the EU grain market, which the IGC rates significantly lower than the USDA. Significant differences can also be observed in the Ukrainian figures in view of the war. Lt. According to the IGC study, the global reduction in stocks should therefore be significantly higher. The result is high and possibly even rising prices.In fact, the later dates on the exchanges are also trading higher. With regard to the global supply of corn, the USDA assumes that the starting stock is 20 million t higher than the IGC, which is essentially due to the fact that Chinese stocks are estimated to be almost 30 million t higher than in the IGC study. The Americans, on the other hand, are estimating the global corn harvest somewhat lower. The estimated consumption figures with a difference of 7 million t (higher for the IGC) are only slightly apart. The US estimate's higher opening inventory carries through to the higher closing inventory. Hence the USDA estimate's more favorable supply numbers in the supply calculation. Since the corn harvests are mainly due later in the grain marketing year and have not even been sown in the southern hemisphere, there are still some reservations about the figures presented in this market sector. Therefore, the future releases with appropriate updates are to be followed.