Oct 2021: IGC corrects world grain supply slightly upwards in 2021/22 In its October 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) estimates the global grain harvest to be 2,290 million t or 1 million t higher than in the previous month. Compared to the previous year, the result is + 3.4% higher. Consumption is estimated to have increased slightly compared to the previous month to 2,291 million t . This increases the excess stocks to 600 million t . The global supply figure increases again to 26.2% final inventory for consumption. In the previous years the figure was between 28 and 27%. The supplies last for around 95 days, 3 years ago it was 105 days. If one examines the market situation without China, one comes to a supply figure of 15.4% final stock for consumption compared to the previous years with 16 to 18%. The supplies last unchanged for 56 days. The global wheat harvest remains at 781 milliont is still at a record level. Compared to the previous year, the increase is only +1.7%. However, consumption is estimated to be higher at 783.5 million t (previous year 770 million t) . The inventories decrease slightly to 276 million t, as well as the supply figure with 35.2% final inventory for consumption, excluding China only 23.2%. (Previous year: 24.1%). In the 5 largest exporting countries, the closing stocks decrease by 10% with a decisive effect on price formation. The greatest supply bottlenecks are at the higher quality levels. There are considerable differences in the individual production areas. In Canada , wheat production is around approx . -38% liked it. Russia harvests around -12% less than in the previous year. In the USA , the result is around -10% worse. In contrast, the high harvests in the Ukraine with +30% and the EU with approx.+ 11% confirmed. Australia has a bumper crop for the second year in a row. On average, increases and reductions balance each other out, but the regionally different results in connection with the increased transport costs contribute to the price increase. The IGC estimates the global corn harvest to be 1,210 million t or +7.5 % higher than in the previous year. The corn harvest in the USA as the world's largest producer and exporter is estimated to be 6.5% higher at 381.5 million t. In the Ukraine , an increase in harvests and exports of around + 28% is achieved. In China , too, earnings are expected to be 4.6% higher. Chinese imports are expected to halve. In contrast, the Brazilian maize harvest fell by around 16% and exports by 37% last year. Global corn consumption is expected to increase by 4.3% year-on-year to 1,201 million t. The increasing consumption in China is particularly contributing to this.Global inventories are 285 million rise t in the course of the corn marketing year 2021/22 by approx. 3%. The supply number increases slightly to around 23.7% final inventory for consumption. 4 years ago, the excess stocks were up to 30% based on consumption. Global supplies last for 86 days (34 days without China; 44 days ago 2 years ago). Overall , it can be stated that the supply situation is still lagging behind the previous years. The additional generation is compensated for by an increase in consumption. The supply situation in the corn sector is somewhat tighter than in the wheat market, but a higher proportion of feed wheat partially compensates for this. In contrast, bread wheat remains scarce worldwide. This leads to rising wheat prices, which rub off on other types of grain. Price increases are also coming from the high freight rates. The Paris wheat prices are around € 275 / t. The corn prices are also picking up despite the current harvest.
