IGC: World grain harvest 2021/22 2.8% higher than in the previous year - but supply is still scarce In its March 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) estimates the global grain harvest to be 2.8% higher than in Previous year. Consumption is estimated at 2,286 million t . The overhang stocks thus remain largely unchanged at 609 million t. The supply figure falls for the 5th time in a row to 26.6% final inventory for consumption . This could mean that the current international price level could continue on average for the coming grain year. However, there are still a number of reservations about the uncertain future developments. In the wheat sector , a record harvest of 790 million t or + 2.1% compared to the previous year is predicted. However, consumption increases less sharply to 778 million t . This results in an increase in stocks from 292 to 304 million t.The supply figure is calculated on an increasing 39% final inventory to consumption and signals an ample coverage of demand. The high proportion of already cultivated winter wheat areas makes the forecast somewhat more reliable, but the weather-dependent yield risk still remains. The current high wheat prices could tend to come under pressure if it weren't for the tight expectations for corn. Most of the still unordered maize is expected to deliver a global harvest of 1,193 million t or + 4.75 % compared to the previous year. In particular, the expectation of a price-related expansion of space in the USA as the world's largest producer and exporter plays a role. However, consumption is expected to be even higher at 1,203 million t. Accordingly, inventories in the course of corn marketing year 2021/22 be rd order. 10 million tonnes to 258 million tonnes significantly reduced. The supply figure falls to a low 21.4% final inventory for consumption.Overall , it can be observed that despite increases in production, no improvement in the supply situation is foreseen. This trend has been evident for 5 years in a row. The background to this is the more rapidly increasing consumption. Above all, the unusually strong increase in imports from China plays a decisive role here. Chinese imports have more than quintupled in the past 3 years.
