IGC: new Sep.-15 estimate of the world grain harvest by 2015/16
In the monthly Sep. issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) comes to the Weltgetreideeschätzung to a total harvest of 1,996 million tonnes, which is around 21 million tonnes in the previous year. The estimate to 1,988 million tonnes amounted in the previous month.
The is now around 7 million wheat t higher to 727 million tonnes of classified after improvements were evident in some countries.
The Corn estimate is prized to 967 million tonnes, approximately 38 million tonnes less than in the previous year.
Compared to the USDA estimate beg. September 2015 which are American production numbers approximately 10 million tonnes higher, the predominantly higher wheat and corn estimate to be written must.
The estimates on the uses side IGC 1,986 million t of grain consumption, approximately 12 million tonnes lower than the USDA.
Accounting of range of initial stock and harvest results to the total consumption provides an end stock increase of around 9 million tonnes to 456 million t. The final data calculated by the USDA estimated at 451 million tonnes. The differences remain in terms of treasure error.
At a lower fuel consumption and slightly higher end inventory results for IGC estimates improve the supply ratio of nearly 22.96% end inventory for consumption, while for the USDA estimate, a figure of 22,57% comes out. Taking into account the inaccuracies of the treasure and the remaining crop risks is the difference of negligible importance.
The necessary lead time for the preparation of such report prevents that younger and foreseeable events not in the assessment were recorded. These include the gradations of Black Sea harvests and reduced harvests in the southern hemisphere as a result of the increasingly clear effects of the El Niño weather looming.
The IGC report confirms a good supply situation for the WJ has 2015/16, but still not all risks of a possible impairment included in the further course of the year.
