IGC estimates world grain supply to be tighter than in the previous month In its latest edition from Oct. 19-23, the International Grain Council (IGC) estimates the world grain supply to be slightly lower than in the previous month. Compared to the previous three-year average of just under 600 million t, only 582 million t are expected; this amount is enough for 92 days or 4 days less than before. The background is the stronger increase in consumption than the increase in production. On the production side, the harvest losses in Australia with 21 million t, in Canada with -9.5 million t, Kazakhstan with -4.5 million t and Russia with -10 million t are particularly significant year-on-year. In contrast, the harvest increases in the USA are +43 million t and in China are +2 million t. For the EU-27, the IGC estimates a consistent harvest of 268 million tonnes. In terms of global consumption , Chinese volumes are expected to increase by +8 million.t and +6 million t predicted in the USA. In the other countries, use remains largely constant. For the EU-27, the IGC estimates domestic consumption of an unchanged 259 million tonnes. The global wheat market is generally estimated to be tighter. A production of 785 million t is compared with a consumption of 804 million t. Increasing harvest volumes are expected in Argentina (+3 million t) and the USA (4 million t). In contrast, production in Australia will be -15 million t, in Canada -4.5 million t, Russia -6 million t and China -1 million t lower compared to the previous year. Wheat consumption is rising particularly sharply in China with +7 million t, with a focus on feed use. Only minor changes are expected in the remaining countries. Global wheat stocks are shrinking from 282 to 263 million tonnes. Without China, the reserves still amount to 125 million tons orenough for 70 days. The global corn supply is characterized by an increase in production of 57 million t and an increase in consumption of 32 million t. This will make it possible to increase the final stocks to 283 million t. The Brazilian harvests of almost +20 million t and the US results of +35 million t show particularly high increases; EU production is also expected to increase by +7 million t compared to the previous year. This more than offsets the decline in Argentine corn production of -18 million tonnes. The corn harvests at the end of the first half of 2024 in South America will again bring average results in Argentina and slightly smaller harvests in Brazil, but still at a high level.
