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IGC forecast world cereal market until 2020-21

IGC estimates growing crops, but even higher consumption – sink stocks

The International Grains Council (IGC) in London has continued up to the year 2020/21 its medium-term projections for the world grain market.

The IGC as above-average years classifies the enclosed back years with high Flächenerträgen and a few weather related impairments. Considerable inventories are built up with moderate consumption increase. China alone, with over 40% of these excess reserves. The Chinese import demand will rise by less than in the past. The inventories shall be reduced only once again on "Normal". On the other hand, China's surpluses are hardly the rest of the world available.

For the coming year something is assumed first by a smaller average harvest , which should be just under 1% on the previous year. Acceptance is based on weather related damage in some production areas. Only the IGC expects at the beginning of the year 2017/18 again with increases in average 1.6% until 2020-21. This is significantly less than in the previous 5-year period 2.8%.

Wheat crops to fall back for the time being to 705 million tonnes and for the rest of the year until 2021 to 1.3% rise. However, the increase in should lag behind the growth rates of previous years.

For maize harvests a similar development is forecast, but at higher levels. In the past 5 years, an average increase of 3.4% was established. For the time it is only by 2% by 2017/18 until 2020-21.   

It is attributed to continued population growth and further increases in income to the expected rise in demand . The consumption of higher value products will increase in Asian and South American countries. Therefore a great importance of feed grain production. The industrial consumption among others for biofuels and for the production of starch reach but not the growth rates of the past few years.  

The projected reduction of surplus stocks brings the supply situation back to a level that to settle only in skimpy average is.

The IGC projection is regarded as a possible average perspective . The single years year specific events will bring discrepancies with it. Open also remains to what extent recent energy prices bring a permanently different development direction with it.

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