IGC increased crop estimate, but lags behind other estimators

IGC estimates world grain harvest by 2015/16 higher than a month ago, remains under the previous forecasts of USDA and FAO

The International Grains Council (IGC) on larger numbers than a month ago comes in the latest may issue of the monthly estimates of the world grain market. So join the IGC on the previous higher estimates of the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) and the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The results suggest that the Getreideraanticipates t now a total harvest without rice remains in the magnitude of 1,968 million tonnes, well below the forecast results of USDA with 1,996 million tonnes. 1,981 million tonnes are in the IGC on the consumption side, while the USDA anticipates 1,997 million tonnes.

End stocks are with 426 million tonnes of the IGC and  427.7 million tonnes of the USDA not far apart.  Since the final stocks are an important indicator of sufficient inventories, the supply situation is classified as a result of two institutions 2015/16 equally well.

In the estimate of the wheat supply , only minor differences in the size of just under 2 million tonnes, which is a treasure errors relating insist on the production and the consumption side. The closing stock differ by 3 million tonnes and are almost unchanged compared to the previous year. The wheat production remains in any case after the result of the previous year, but well above the multi-annual average.

The corn balance sheet however varies. While the USDA goes out of 990 million tons, the IGC despite increase in the previous month estimates only 961 million tonnes. The U.S. Department of agriculture increases maize consumption to around 13 million tonnes to 990 million tonnes while the international grain Council estimates corn use only marginally higher at 974 million tonnes. The closing stock of both institutions closer together again and differ only by 5 million tonnes or  2.5%.

The latest IGC estimates were still catching up due to the favourable growth conditions in the spring of this year, could install but already with first corrective restrictions of recent development in their forecasts.

2. crop forecast, the USDAwill appear on 12 June 2015. More recent developments are likely to be processed. The impact of the latest weather developments in the central areas of the United States, Europe, India and the Black Sea region could be reflected. In particular, the question of the inclusion of the El Nino weather will play a role. Increased security could set in the square footage.

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