IGC -Getreid Estimate - Exporters in sharp price war over exports The recent grain estimate of the International Grains Council (IGC) does not provide fundamentally new insights into the global supply situation on the world cereal market. In addition to minor corrections, especially the methodically modified estimation results in China were incorporated into the calculator. Thus, the figures including China are no longer comparable to previous results. A separate presentation of the figures excluding China concludes that a harvest of 1,724 million t and a consumption of 1,741 million t can be expected for the year 2018-19. The lack of demand is denied from the 10% reduction of the overhang stocks. The global supplies excluding China are only enough for 58 days compared to 65 days in the previous year and 67 days in the previous year. In the case of wheat supply, the arithmetical reserve rd. 83 days compared to 91 days one year earlier.By contrast, the maize reserves only last for a calculated 44 days compared to the previous year with 50 days. In the world trade in cereals , the US accounts for the largest share with 93 million tons per year. This is followed by Ukraine with 48 million tonnes, with a focus on corn exports, just ahead of Argentina with 47 million tonnes. Russia achieved only 42 million tonnes this year, 53 million tonnes compared to the previous year. Due to drought, the EU exports only 33 mln t and Australia with 14.5 mln t drops significantly. On the import side , the EU is at the forefront of 28.5 million tonnes, of which approx. Corn accounts for 21 million tonnes. For the rest of the year 2018-19 is expected to falling exports of Russia, but the Russian wheat prices remain competitive with competitors from the US and the EU continue in competitive advantage.This depresses the price level in this country, because the export remains the tip despite the dryness-induced supply situation on the scales. Recently, export prices for wheat at the main export ports have been very close and together have taken a significant step downwards. The background is the unexpectedly high deliveries from the Black Sea region . It had expected a noticeable drop in exports there, but these have not yet occurred. After the mild winter , the overwhelming assessment is that the connection to the new crop should not cause any problems. The buyers are accordingly restrained. The IGC reiterates the coming 2019 harvest at a high level, while acknowledging that consumption is equally high . It should remain according to IGC opinion at fixed prices
