IGC estimates lower crop 2016/17, but consistently high supply situation
A day after the release of growing intentions of U.S. farmers has International Grains Council (IGC) released its monthly estimate of the new harvest 2016/17. The American figures remained unconsidered here, bearing in mind that the surfaces of orders in the United States are still very variable.
The IGC estimates the harvest without rice to 1,997 million. t or + 0.5% below current levels for 2015/16 with 2,006 million tonnes. World consumption should rise by 0.4%. Strongest consumption growth provided % % and + 1.4 industrial consumption in the food with + 1, while food consumption in the face of stagnant animal numbers remains largely unchanged.
The surplus stocks want to remain unchanged at a high level of 466 million tonnes at the end of the marketing year. This IGC is derived ratio an above-average supply situation with a number of supply stock to use by 23%; long-term averages are just under 21%.
The global wheat harvest 2016/17 is estimated around 21 million tonnes lower at 713 million tonnes compared to the previous year's harvest. The main reason is the assumption that the repetition of record income of the previous year is unlikely. In addition are up to 30% to determine significant crop losses in the Ukraine. The smallest acreage of wheat were grown in the United States since 1972. In the Maghreb countries of North Africa, drought has confirmed the prospect of a reduced harvest. The 2nd crop failure result is expected in Ethiopia.
Easily reduced wheat consumption , lower closing stock, but still above the long-term average calculate at the end of the year 2016/17 to 3 million tonnes.
The global corn production should increase to about 20 million tonnes to 993 million tonnes. Almost equally strong consumption growth, the closing stock will change only slightly. There are only a few changes at the other crop species.
An uncertainty factor is still the Chinese grain market policy, which will change its minimum price - and import policy in order to reduce of their oversized corn supplies. What repercussions on world trade are to be expected, is still difficult to assess.
And as always, the weather in the plays yield development phases decide a tremendous role for the end result.
