IGC cuts global grain production and supplies compared to the previous month The International Grain Council (IGC) estimates global grain production and consumption to be somewhat lower than in the previous month in its latest July issue. Compared to the previous year, an increase of + 3.7% is predicted. The global grain trade is estimated at 419 million t. On the export side, the USA comes first with around 96 million t, followed by Argentina and Ukraine with 56 million t each, the EU and Russia with 48 million t each, and Australia and Canada with 27 million t each . These 7 countries account for around 85% of global exports. The 7 largest grain import regions (North Africa and the Middle East, Southeast Asia, China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico) import around 270 million tons of grain. Of this, around 100 million t of shiploads go to the North African and Middle Eastern countries. China quintupled its imports to the current 57 million t within 5 years.The EU-27 is fully integrated into the world grain trade and price formation on the export side, especially with wheat and on the import side with maize. Worldwide stocks continue to decline and are only 26.7% of the final stock based on consumption. The multi-year average is 27.5%. This means that the supply situation remains below average, with the corresponding consequences for pricing. The global wheat harvest is estimated unchanged at 787 million t; compared to the previous year, the increase is + 2.2%. The IGC only expects higher harvests in the EU (+ 1.3%) and the Ukraine (+ 2.7%). However, strong discounts are being made in the USA (-7.6%) and Canada (-13.3%) due to the drought. The final stocks are estimated at 280 million t and will last for 130 days (2 days less than in the previous year). The Chinese harvest is expected to have to be cut by the recent floods. With global wheat exports of 192 milliont there is fierce competition between Russia (38 million t), EU-27 (34 million t), USA (24 million t), Australia (21 million t), Ukraine (21 million t), Canada (20th Million t) and Argentina (14 million t). On the wheat import side, there are North African and Middle Eastern countries with an import volume of around 50 million t, which the Black Sea countries and the EU are primarily concerned with. China's forecast imports of 10 million tons are expected to increase. The global corn harvest is estimated to be +6.6% higher than in the previous year to 1,202 million t. The USA with + 5%, China with 4.4% and the Ukraine with an increase of 24% made a significant contribution to the increase. Incl. In China, the final stocks are estimated at a slightly increased 272 million t. The range of coverage is 82 days (previous year 84 days). Without China , the stocks are calculated at 88 million t or just under 36 days. The global maize trade reaches 180 million t. On the export side , there is the USA with 64 million t, followed by Argentina with 36 million t.Due to the unfavorable weather conditions, Brazil will only manage 25 mln t this year compared to the 38 mln t that was usual in the past. The major importing countries include China with 18 million t, the EU-27 and Japan with around 16 million t each. The current quotations on the international stock exchanges show considerable price fluctuations. The usual price weakness in the harvest period is repeatedly interrupted by reports of weather-related harvest losses. At the producer level , too, no clear, convincing price line has emerged.
