IGC reduces 2024/25 grain estimate compared to previous month

IGC updates forecast for the global grain market 2024/25

The International Grains Council (IGC) has updated its forecast for the global grain market in 2024/25 in its Apr. 24 issue. Production is estimated to be 10 million tons lower than in the previous month at 2,322 million tons. The decisive factor was the reduction in the US harvest.

Global consumption will also be reduced and is expected to amount to 2,321 million tons. At the end of the year, a surplus of around 592 million tons (previous year: 591 million tons) is forecast. Compared to the previous year, the supply situation will be even tighter at 25.5% final stocks to consumption.

The IGC cuts the global wheat harvest slightly from the previous month's estimate to just under 798 million tons (previous year: 789 million tons). Consumption is also slightly reduced to 802.6 million tons, but remains below the previous year's level of 806 million tons. This will result in a noticeable reduction in inventories, which, excluding China, will be even more pronounced at -5.6%. A reduction in stocks is also expected for the EU-27.

The maize harvest is estimated to be lower at 1,226 million tons (previous month: 1.233 million tons). The decisive factor is the reduction in the US harvest of 8 million tons compared to the previous month. The IGC also estimates corn consumption to be lower at 1,223 million tons. Ending stocks remain roughly at the previous year's level. The result in the 2024/25 maize sector is slightly better year-on-year.

Harvests and consumption of the other types of grain are slightly higher at +10 million tons.

The IGC estimates the total EU grain harvest at 278 million tons (previous year: 270 million tons). Consumption is estimated at around 260 million tons. Imports will fall to 26 million tons (previous year: 34 million tons) and exports are expected to remain roughly the same at around 48 million tons. Inventories will decrease from 35 to 31 million tons.

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