IGC: World grain production 2020/21 lower - sharp decline in global corn supply In its January 2021 edition, the International Grain Council (IGC) classified the world grain harvest as lower than the last estimate at the end of November 2020 at 2,210 million t . Worldwide consumption is estimated at 2,216 million t . This will reduce the end stocks to 611 million t. The global supply figure drops to 27.5% final inventory of consumption. If China is left out of the equation because of its high stocks but minor exports, the figure for the rest of the world is 16.4%, which is significantly lower than 2 years ago with around 17%. The supply situation on the global wheat market is still estimated to be high. A worldwide production of 768 million t means consumption of 753 million t .t opposite. The closing stocks increase. This also applies in the event of China being excluded, albeit at a lower level. The result in the wheat sector is characterized on the one hand by poor harvests in the EU, Ukraine, USA and Argentina ; but the doubling of the Australian harvest and above-average results in Russia and India more than make up for it. In the corn sector, on the other hand, there are significant losses compared to the previous estimate. The global harvest is estimated at 1,132 million t and consumption at 1,161 million t. This results in a substantial reduction in the final stocks of around 30 million t to 268 million t. If you exclude China again, an arithmetical final stock of just under 90 million t remains. That corresponds to only 10% of consumption .This is critical because the cushion for unforeseen supply bottlenecks is unusually small. The cause of this tight market situation in the corn sector is, on the one hand, significant reductions in harvests in the USA, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine and the EU . In addition, the scarce situation is fueled by the tripled corn imports from China in the past two years. The sensitive stock exchange prices have risen correspondingly steeply. In Chicago , the corn prices have increased by around 23% since mid-December 2020, in Paris the corn prices have climbed from just under € 190 / t to around € 215 / t . Scarce and expensive maize is increasingly directing more wheat into the feed troughs . The consequence is a corresponding increase in wheat prices . In Paris , the prices have been rising since mid-December.2020 increased from 200 € / t to the current 235 € / t . In Chicago , wheat prices rose 13% over the same period. The forward rates beyond March 2021 show no significant increases.
