IGC: World grain higher, Ending stocks lower - China's wheat stocks high, China's large corn stocks fall sharply The recent estimate of the international grain crop (IGC) on world grain harvest 2017/18 has brought a further increase to 2,075 million tonnes against the previous month. Overall, however, this year's result remains 58 million tonnes (more than the German crop) behind the previous year's record result.Global consumption of cereals is estimated to be above the 2.104 million tonne line for the first time. Strong consumption increases are taking place in China, which is attempting to reduce its surplus through the increased industrial use of corn in particular.The reduction of global At the end of the year, final stocks of 30 million tonnes to 493 million tonnes fell to China . A further 5 million tonnes of stock reduction are recorded in Australia , while the USA accounts for approx. 6 million tonnes for the reduction and the EU is involved with 3 million tonnes . On the other hand, the expected final balance in Russia is 9 million tonnes.In view of China's insignificant participation in world trade , the global stockpiling is not quite as dramatic. Nevertheless, the reduced inventories of the world's eight largest export regions show an increase of around 4% noticeable effects. Excluding the Russian stockpile, the inventory reduction would be twice as large.With an estimated export volume of 42 million tonnes and a final stock of 22 million tonnes, Russia is developing an extraordinary dynamic in global grain trading. In comparison, the US is indeed still at the top with almost 80 million tonnes of exports and a surplus of 88 million tonnes. The EU comes to 40 million tonnes of exports and 30 million tonnes of final stocks.Australia is experiencing a serious cutback , whose imminent harvest from previous year 52 falls to this year's 32 million tonnes. Australian exports will drop by half by around 10 million tonnes despite the reduction in inventories. This creates a certain counterbalance to Russian conditions.In the wheat sector occurs after IGC estimate at reduced harvest the previous year, but rising consumption still t to a global inventory build-up of nearly 250 million, or 33.6% of consumption.For more precise Consideration is also given here to the increase in inventories in China of +12 million t . The Chinese wheat surplus quantities now account for more than 80% of a year's harvest. Nevertheless, almost nothing is exported because the state would have to subsidize the price difference between Chinese 33 € / dt and the world market price of just under 20 € / dt plus transport costs.Without China, the wheat sector is expected to have a much narrower supply situation . The calculation yields falling final stocks of 23.6% in the two previous years to 22.7% this year as measured by consumption.The high Russian exports and overhanging stocks prevent a further shortage. Russia has risen to the world's leading exporter of wheat.In the Mae-sector , the United States remains the key. The US crop2017/18 was again ranked higher.The reduction in the global supply situation is largely attributable to the increase in Chinese consumption . The importance of China is relativized increasingly with the government-driven reduction of surpluses.
