IGC world wheat harvest higher estimates lower supply situation

IGC estimates world harvest 2015/16 slightly higher than in the previous month, but significantly lower than in the previous year

The predicted in its monthly release update on the harvest estimate for the year 2015/16 International Grains Council (IGC) a world grain harvest of 1,970 million tonnes (without rice). The value was 2,011 million tonnes in the previous year. Nonetheless, the estimated result above the multi-annual average.

The harvest is divided into approximately 710 million tonnes of wheat, 966 million  t maize and a rest of about 295 million tonnes on the other grains, such as barley, rye, oats, sorghum among others.

The wheat crop by 2015/16, with 710 million t remains significantly behind compared with 721 million tonnes. The most recent estimate was weaker somewhat compared to the previous month, because compromising the crops in Canada, United States and the EU had to be made.

On the consumption page 711.5 million tonnes estimated world wheat, 3rd. 5 million tonnes higher than in the previous year. The high surplus stocks of 202 million tonnes beginning of shall be reduced only by 1 million tonnes. First, a high global supply situation is deducible from the numbers. Security of supply is however less favourable to assess when the closer look. This can be from the low overhang stocks of the biggest exporting countries, whose Reserven to also need import have become weaker.

The estimate of the global corn harvest with 966 million tonnes is around 36 million tonnes lower than last year's result.  The result due to favourable crop prospects in China (5 million tons) but was increased compared to the previous month.

On the consumption page 972 million tonnes of corn were estimated. When used for food, industrial and human consumption, the demand numbers were reduced. Global overlay stocks are reduced by 6 million tonnes. In this case, a good global supply situation is calculated though. But the figures for the largest exporting countries applying, whose surplus stocks to 12 million  t the previous year are mined, it is clear that security of supply but considerably less fails.

The supply situation for cereals as a whole looks similar. With just under 22% closing stock consumption (after processing pattern IGC) is the result under the previous year's record year, but is still in the upper midfield. With regard to the reliability of the global supply situation, however, smears are to make. Still remaining risks of remaining crops are dampened by the significantly lower reserve potential of surplus stocks in the exporting countries of less than in recent years.

The stock prices have again canceled the downhill run of the last few weeks and are on the way of consolidation that currently matches the level of the months may and June 2015. After the favorable weather Outlook in the United States and Canada were very much to the fore of the assessments, the critical voices are louder again, that an El Niño weather phenomenon, political and currency-related reference uncertainties still outstanding risks. More important information carry the potential of a rate change in itself to assessing the supply situation.

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