Jul. 2024: FAO updates world grain supply.
In its latest July issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated its estimate of the world grain supply for 2024-25. The production and consumption figures were slightly increased compared to the previous month's estimate.
Grain production (excluding rice) in 2024/25 of 2,319 million tons is offset by consumption of 2,325 million tons. The shortfall will be covered by the reduction in stocks. However, the supply figure changes only slightly to 29.5% final stocks to consumption.
In the case of wheat production, a slight improvement on the previous month is assumed and the harvest is estimated at 789 million tons. The difference to the previous year is only +1 million tons. Global wheat consumption is expected to amount to 795.5 million tons (previous year: 801 million tons). Stocks at the end of the year are calculated to be -5 million tons lower than at the beginning of the year. Supplies remain tight.
In the case of coarse grain with a focus on maize, production is expected to be slightly lower than in the previous year. However, consumption will increase. Overall, however, stocks are expected to increase slightly.
In the case of the rice market, higher production and higher consumption will largely balance each other out.
International grain trade is expected to be lower than in the previous year. This is due to lower export activities from Russia and Ukraine.
Overall, the FAO expects the supply situation on the global grain market to be slightly tighter in 2024/25 than in the previous year.
After the rollercoaster ride of recent weeks, grain prices have stabilized at a slightly higher level for the time being.
