June 2024: IGC updates 2024/25 harvest estimate
The International Grains Council (IGC) has updated the global supply situation in the grain sector in its Jun-24 issue. The total harvest is classified as unchanged compared to the previous month, while consumption is expected to increase slightly.
Compared to the previous year, production is expected to grow by +12 million tons and consumption by around 10 million tons. According to IGC calculations, the final stock is expected to continue to fall and only reach 25% of consumption. In previous years, this supply figure was between 30% and 26%. This means that, by and large, world grain supplies are expected to remain tight in 2024/25.
The IGC has revised global wheat production slightly back to the same level as the previous year of 793 million tons. Global wheat consumption is reduced to 800 million tons (previous year: 805 million tons). It can therefore be assumed that global wheat supplies will tend to be tighter in 2024/25.
The cuts primarily affect Russia, whose harvest is estimated at only 82 million tons; in the two previous years, the results were between 91 and 95 million tons. Production in Ukraine will be reduced from last year's 28 million tons to this year's 23 million tons due to acreage and yield.
For the EU-27, the IGC expects a smaller harvest of 129 million tons (previous year: 133 million tons).
Rising wheat harvests are forecast to a manageable extent in Argentina, Australia, Canada and the USA (combined: +11 million tons). Higher results are also expected in China and India.
Global wheat trade is expected to be 7% lower, mainly due to the lower export potential of Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27 as a result of the harvest. Slightly higher deliveries from Argentina and Canada will not be able to compensate for this.
The global maize harvest is estimated at 1,223 million tons (previous year: 1,225 million tons). Consumption is estimated to be 10 million tons higher than in the previous year at 1,228 million tons. A tighter supply situation is also predicted in this sector, as stocks are set to fall further.
Lower harvests are estimated in the USA (-16 million tons = - 4%), Ukraine (-2 million tons = - 12%) and Brazil (-9 million tons = -7%).
The IGC estimatesrising maize harvests for the EU (+3 million tons), South Africa (+3 million tons) and China (+7 million tons)
Global maize trade is expected to be lower, in particular due to a decline in Chinese and European imports.
At 296 million tons, other cereals are up on the previous year's level of 282 million tons and are helping to balance out wheat and maize somewhat.
