Mar 2023: FAO improves global grain estimate 2022/23 - corrected forecast for 2023 In its latest Mar 2023 report on the situation in the world grain market , the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has compared to the Fbr.2023 estimate Upward revisions of 9 million t made. The main beneficiaries of this are rice with +5 million t and to a lesser extent feed grain with +3 million t. Wheat was only ranked 1 million t higher. The global wheat harvest is estimated at 795 million t (previous year 778 million t). The higher production results are due to the above-average harvests in Russia and Australia. Consumption is expected to be slightly higher at around 779.5 million tonnes. An increase in ending stocks to around 305.7 million t (previous year 294 million t) or 38.7% of consumption is thus forecast. The reserves of the major exporting countries amount to 18.1% of consumption (previous year 16.0%). The global rice harvest is estimated at around 516.6 million t (previous year 524 million t).The FAO estimates consumption at 520 million t (-1 million t compared to the previous year). The ending stock thus fell to 194.4 million t (previous year 197 million t). The reserves of the major exporting countries remain at a high level of just under 29.7% of consumption. The FAO increased the remaining grain harvest with a focus on corn to 1,462.5 million t (previous year 1,509 million t) compared to the previous month. Reductions were made for corn in the EU, USA and Russia. By contrast, the Chinese corn harvest will be raised somewhat. Monthly comparison, consumption is expected to fall to 1,480 million t (previous year 1,504 million t). Accordingly, the ending stocks will be reduced by around 17 million t to 344 million t. This shows the lowest level of supply in the last 10 years (22% final stock to consumption). The increases in global consumption of grain and rice in previous years as a result of increasing population and income are reduced by -0.7%. This takes place primarily in the poorer importing countries. Global production falls below consumption. World level inventories have not shown any improvement for 5 years.For the 2023 crop year, the FAO assumes that wheat production will decline. A significantly smaller harvest is expected in Europe, Russia and Ukraine. Lower harvests are also expected in the North African countries due to the lack of precipitation. In contrast, the USDA estimates an increase in wheat cultivation in the USA and Canada. However, against the background of persistently above-average fertilizer prices, lower yields per hectare are expected; even if fertilizer prices have fallen recently. The prospects of an improved supply situation in the future should be classified as rather cautious; a market situation at the level of 2022 would already be classified as favourable. A longer-term view of global cereal rice production in relation to the growing world population shows that the global supply situation has not improved for around 10 years. In view of the consequences of the Ukraine war, a fundamental increase is not to be expected for the time being in the coming grain marketing years. That will be reflected in the prices.
