MARS slightly reduces yield estimate for EU compared to previous month
In its latest June issue, the EU Commission's Agrometeorological Institute (MARS) reduced its climate-based yield estimates for cereals in the EU-27 by an average of 1% compared to the previous month due to recent weather developments. Compared to the 5-year average, the average result is +2% higher.
However, the yield estimates for the main crop wheat differ in the individual EU member states due to the very different regional weather patterns.
Compared to the previous year, wheat yields in Austria (-11%), France (-7%) and Italy (-6%) fell significantly and are well below the 5-year average.
Less serious yield losses are estimated in the Netherlands (-4%), Belgium (-2%), the Czech Republic (-4%), Romania (-3%) and Poland (-2%).
In some EU countries, the harvests last year were catastrophic in some cases. Better results are forecast for the current year with good average weather conditions. It is useful to use the 5-year average as a benchmark. Spain is expected to achieve higher yields by +17 %, Portugal by +18 % and Bulgaria by +9 %.
A slight increase in wheat yields is forecast for Germany and some other countries.
In the case of winter barley, the previous estimates for the EU average remain unchanged from the previous year. Yields per hectare are forecast to be +5% higher for rye and +3% for triticale. In the case of grain maize, the result is expected to be only 1% higher than in the previous year.
Average rapeseed yields are only expected to just reach the previous year's level. However, -5 % is forecast in France and -2 % in Germany. This contrasts with some considerable increases in the Baltic states and Spain.
