MARS estimates EU wheat yields slightly above average
In its new Apr. 24 issue, the EU Commission's Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) has updated its yield forecasts from the previous month based on the climate data evaluation from 1 Mar. to 13 Apr. 2024. The comparisons are made with both the previous year and the 5-year average.
In the case of wheat yields, a 1 % and 2 % higher yield of 5.72 tons per hectare on average is forecast for the EU as a whole in 2024. The results vary in the individual member states due to the development of vegetation to date.
In particular, comparisons of country-specific yields with a catastrophic result in the previous year, such as Spain and Portugal, are striking with increases of around 70%, but comparisons with the 5-year average are better, with increases of 11% and 6% respectively.
Above-average yield increases are predicted in Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Italy, ranging from +5% to +19%. This is due to sufficient precipitation in mild winter weather, which has had a favorable influence on crop development.
In the north and in the center of the EU internal market, good average wheat yields are forecast in most countries. Germany is one of them, even if waterlogging and flooding have reduced expectations in some areas. On the other hand, the yield prospects in favorable areas are all the better.
Below-average yields per hectare are expected in France, the largest production area, at -3% due to unfavorable sowing conditions in autumn 2023. Wheat stocks are classified as below average by several institutions.
Denmark and Ireland are also among the climate-related disadvantaged growing regions with yield reductions of -4 % to -5 %.
However, the final phase of yield formation is still to come. In June, the final yield per hectare is determined not only by the number of spike-bearing stalks but also by the period of grain filling and the subsequent harvest conditions.
