MARS forecast for 2016 higher cereal yields in the EU
The agro-meteorological Institute of the EU (MARS) increased its forecast to the earnings prospects in the EU by 1.3% compared to the previous month's estimate. The average grain yield is 5.5 t / ha classified and is thus approximately 3.3% over the 5-year average from 2011 to 2015. Wheat yields should be better by 4.5% and the winter barley by 7%.
Trend calculations, but partially supplemented in the present case by the climate data over the period from March 20 to April 20, 2016 initially provide the basis for the estimates. For corn, it remains for the time being at trend statements.
However, the Institute makes differences between EU Member States. Ranging from Sweden to Denmark and South Eastern European countries as well as for Spain predicted above-average results with increases above the 4% mark. Sufficient rainfall and low temperature developments are background.
For Finland, the Baltic States until after Poland into inadequate rains and frosts have resulted in mid-month January adverse effects of existing developments. However, even average profit forecasts issued for the northeastern regions of the EU.
Britain, France and Italy remain the forecasts in relation to the upper range of the average income. 8.2 t / ha in France are expected 7.5 t and still scarce in Italy 4 t / ha in England.
8.2 t on average are predicted for Germany , while in Poland, with 4.4 tonnes average yield, some cuts because of the regional Dewinterizing and below-average precipitation had to be made.
In recent times the question arises however whether and to what extent the vegetation lead as a result of the mild winter and early spring through the current cold wave has been already once again lost. The last two weeks of plant growth was minimal.
The weather conditions during the period from Mid May until the end of June, however, are crucial for the yield . During this phase, the number of end grain bearing straws, ear size, and last but not least the expression of grain abundance decides. In this respect, the predictions form first guidance, which need to be further monitored in the course.
