Weather-related adverse effects on Russian grain production in 2024
Grain production in Russia in 2024 will be significantly lower due to various unusual weather conditions. This will result in a significant loss of exports for the global supply, with corresponding consequences for pricing.
The main growing regions of the southern and Volga districts will be particularly affected. While comparatively favorable weather conditions still prevailed for the most part during the autumn planting season, crops were severely damaged in the spring months of March to May due to a lack of precipitation, above-average temperatures and late frosts in May. Some crops had to be reseeded with lower-yielding summer crops. Too little rainfall in June also worsened the harvest prospects in the southern district.
The latest climate-based yield estimates from the Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) showed yields per hectare of 35 dt/ha for winter wheat, or -15 % below the previous year; for spring wheat, the figure is expected to be 21 dt/ha, the same as last year. Barley yields are estimated at 39 dt/ha for the winter varieties and 24.5 dt/ha for the spring varieties. At 62 dt/ha, grain yields are around 12 % lower than in 2023.
The Russian wheat harvestis calculated from the acreage and yield prospects at only 82 million tons compared to 93.6 million tons in the previous year. Barley production will fall from 21.5 to 19.9 million tons. For grain maize, 15.9 million tons are expected compared to the previous year's 18.1 million tons
Overall, the MARS estimates provide a slightly better harvest result than previously expected. This reduces the strong fears of possible supply bottlenecks in the global wheat sector. Listed wheat prices have come back from their brief spike. However, the global supply situation remains tense.
