MARS estimates high Flächenerträge for the EU-28 - but also exceptions
The Agrarmeteorologische Institute at the Commission (MARS) has provided views of the yields of the different cultures in Europe in its most recent issue of the month on the basis of nationwide climate data records. The data material originates from the period from 1 May to 17 June. 2014th the observations of the years 2009 to 2013 have delivered the basis for comparison for the assessment of income. If the results are better than average for the EU-28 as a whole, but there are regional variations in the locations and cultures.
The average of all cereals, a yield per hectare is forecast 5.3 t of about 4% above the multi-annual average as good last year. Soft wheat is estimated at a Flächenertrag of 5.8 tons and barley on nearly 5.5 tons. grain maize about 7.1 t/ha to bring the EU average. Somewhat weaker cut the remaining summer grains as a result of the warm spring.
Among the individual regions, striking a large part of Spain by a considerable drop in rainfall. That has hurt particularly the Spanish barley on the weaker sites
A strip to low rainfall with a pronounced period of warm weather has affected large parts of the middle and South-Eastern France, while the high-yield regions of Northwestern France were not affected. Therefore, the yields remain unencumbered.
The hot weather period has reached the southern part of Germany and the Alpine countries in early spring, however without detectable adverse effects to deliver. The subsequent periods provided for partial compensation.
Up on the Slovakia, the Central and Eastern European countries have received sufficient rainfall in one early onset of vegetation. Above-average, high Flächenerträge with an increase of more than 4% compared with the multi-year averages are the result. The Flächenerträge in these areas are subject to strong fluctuations depending on sufficient rainfall during the revenue phase.
Average yields are foreseen also for Ireland and the United Kingdom. After two years with cereal deficits, England will again reach the opportunities for greater exports.
The MARS forecasts are in good agreement with the assessments of leading institutions, involved in harvest forecasts.
