MARS lowers yield forecasts for the 2023 harvest compared to the previous month In its April 2023 issue, the Agricultural Meteorological Institute of the EU Commission (MARS) revised the previous yield forecasts for the 2023 harvest downwards on the basis of climate data. According to the current state of knowledge, the yield forecast for wheat will be reduced by 1% compared to the previous month. In the case of spring barley, the area yields should even be -7% lower than was assumed in March 2023. This result affects the barley overall with -3%. On the other hand, a 2% increase in yield is forecast for rye and a 1% increase in the case of rapeseed. In a 5-year comparison, with the exception of spring barley, a yield that is around 3% higher in 2023 is expected. In the case of rye, even +8% more is expected. The basis of these yield forecasts is the current evaluation of climate data against the background of long-term empirical values of the influence of weather developments on yield formation. The drought is having a particularly serious impact in large parts of Spain, southern France and northern Italy. The vegetation development, which is already well advanced in these regions, can hardly be reversed.On the other hand, the rain surplus in Germany with neighboring regions and some CEEC states is initially favorable for the formation of soil water reserves. The downside is the delay in spring ordering.
