DRV: 3rd grain harvest estimate for 2022 at 42.9 million t - no rain! In its 3rd harvest estimate, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) reduced German grain production in 2022 to 42.9 million tons compared to the previous month. The result is only around +1.7% above the previous year or +0.65% above the 5-year average. With the acreage unchanged compared to the previous year, the reduced, higher yield expectation of +1.7% on average is decisive. On average, an area yield of 71.2 dt/ha is estimated. However, the yield estimates range from -8.7% (maize) to +9.7% (oats) compared to the previous year. With a share of around 50%, wheat has the greatest influence on the overall result. According to the findings of the Stat. Federal Office increased by +0.4% compared to the previous year. In terms of yield per hectare, the DRV only predicts an increase of +4.3% to 76.2 dt/ha. Overall, the wheat harvest is expected to reach 22.4 milliont (+4.7% yoy) increase; in a five-year comparison, only an increase of +0.5% is expected. The second largest type of grain is winter and spring barley with a share of 25%. The acreage was increased by +1.6% compared to the previous year, but the area yield is expected to be -1.6% lower. A total production of 10.4 million t is forecast. In the case of spring barley (brewing barley), a strong increase in production of 15.4% is expected after the setback of the previous year due to area (+9.7%) and yield (+5.2%). The ongoing maize sowing is to take place on a +6.5% significantly larger area. Expected yields of 94.6 dt/ha are well below last year's good result of 103.6 dt/ha. Accordingly, the corn harvest is expected to be -2.7% lower, but will remain well above the 5-year average. On the other hand, the cultivation of oats is said to have fallen by -12.2%.With an estimated yield of 45.3 dt/ha (+9.7% compared to the previous year), the total harvest is expected to decrease by -3.7%. At -5.9% , rye cultivation has been significantly reduced ; higher earnings expectations that had been harbored in the previous month have been reduced to zero. Although the area for triticale fell by -1.2%, higher yields of +4.4% are expected. The harvest is expected to grow by 3.2% compared to the previous year. The DRV estimate is based on the area surveys of the Stat. Federal Office of December 22, 2021. The DRV estimated the most recent area yields. The DRV expressly points out the problems of the scarcity of precipitation. In the eastern German states in particular, serious yield losses can still occur as a result of a lack of water; the available field capacity is already largely exhausted.In addition to the uncertain weather developments, the scarce and expensive fertilizers have to be taken into account this year, which will have a particularly heavy influence on the yield per hectare. Earlier harvest results of more than 50 million tons are a thing of the past. The German grain market is only slightly above the self-sufficiency mark.
