FAO updates 2023/24 world grain estimate - cuts to 2024/25 harvest estimate
In its latest May 24 report, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated the previous results for the 2023/24 world grain harvest, including rice. At the same time, initial forecasts for 2024/25 were significantly reduced.
The FAO estimate for the global grain harvest in 2023/24 was increased by 5 million tons. The increase is mainly due to higher rice production.
Wheat production is downgraded from last year's 806 million tons to this year's 788 million tons. Consumption has risen by just under 5 million tons to 794 million tons. The lack of difference between production and consumption led to a reduction in stocks to 318 million tons (previous year: 323 million tons).
This year's harvest of 1,528 million tons of feed grain, with a focus on maize, is estimated to be slightly higher than previously. Consumption is estimated at 1,510 million tons. It is therefore assumed that final stocks will be increased by 20 million tons compared to the previous year to 372 million tons. This corresponds to a supply situation that is still below average, with 24% final stocks in relation to consumption (in previous years between 25 and 27%).
Preliminary harvest estimates for 2024 are reduced
The wheat production forecast in Apr.2024 for 2024/25 proves to be too high in light of recent developments. The new estimate is 791 million tons.
The decisive influences come from the EU , where the area under cultivation is around 5 % lower. However, favorable vegetation development to date is expected to lead to higher yields per hectare, meaning that the EU harvest will only be -4% smaller.
In Australia, the 2024 wheat harvest has also been reduced because yields per hectare are expected to be lower.
In Russia, a persistent drought in the southern growing regions has contributed to a significant reduction in yield prospects. The wheat harvest is now only estimated at 93 million tons, but remains above the multi-year level.
In Ukraine, the war is making itself felt through a lack of capacity in cultivation and harvesting. The result is estimated at only 20 million tons.
In the USA, a slightly larger wheat harvest of around 52 million tons is expected due to favourable weather conditions, particularly in the southern parts of the country.
In Canada, an average wheat harvest of 2024 is forecast again after earlier setbacks.
In India and Pakistan, an above-average wheat harvest is expected due to favorable production conditions.
In North Africa, the rains have come too late in many areas. Harvest expectations there remain below average with high import requirements.
In the southern hemisphere , the main coarse grain harvest is beginning, with a focus on maize. In Brazil , unfavorable weather conditions in the growing regions in the south and central west have reduced yield prospects. The harvest forecast is lowered to 1,110 million tons, but is still above the 5-year average.
In South Africa , hot and dry weather conditions since February have dampened yield expectations. Maize production is now expected to fall 10 percent below the five-year average. Most countries in southern Africa are also expected to see a significant drop in maize yields in 2024, which is also due to severe rainfall deficits.
In the northern hemisphere, maize sowing is in full swing. The FAO has not yet provided any information on this.
