15.
10.14
10:19

Much match a EU record harvest in grain

EU cereal harvest by several institutions estimated at record levels.

The EU cereals crop is completed in 2014 on corn. The result is estimated by various institutions. Here, different results emerge depending on the used estimation method.

Yet the results are not so far apart, until on the FAO when it concedes a certain treasure fault tolerance. The EU harvest is higher than the previous year crop with approximately 302 million tonnes in the range between 315 to 320 million t to classify his and so clear.

Also the pro-rata of EU wheat crop is nearly concordant (exception: FAO) estimated between 153 to 155 million tonnes.

Sprinkle the consumption figures in a larger range, normally this requires, that the inevitable losses are partially added to the consumption or are reported elsewhere.  

The export is in a range from 34 to just under 38 million tonnes prized, where a large consensus that the figures of the record previous year should not be met with over 40 million tons. The justifications are even in the low amounts of French wheat as the largest Exporteuer and the strong competition from the Black Sea region.  

However, the absolute differences between the institutions of the treasure are of less interest because they are methodically. More interesting are the estimated changes when using the same method. Here, too, the FAO is an exception again.

The result increases of the crop 2014 year stand out especially when the umbrella organization of European cereal / oilseed traders COCERAL. This is the most recent estimate, although the time difference is barely 3 weeks.

So the absolute numbers of harvest together snug in the wheat, the changes from year to year are so different between + 6 million to 11 million tonnes. Possible explanation cause could be the different attribution of durum wheat.

Similar to the growth rates in consumption in a range from 5.5 to 9 million tons are drifting apart. Also here is the difference due to the different allocation of loss numbers explained.

Crucial to the final stocks are price levels and price history. A high inventory build-up indicated a safe cushion the supply situation so that bottlenecks can be offset relatively easily even with unforeseen market disturbances. This leads to a waiting trading with price stabilisation and a smoother price history. Therefore in the year 2014/15 shall expect less hectic course developments.  The Commons business runs quieter, but thus also less economically interesting.

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