Prospects for the global agricultural sector in the next decade
The OECD and FAO have collected together 2014 to 2023 a 350-seitigen report on the prospects in the global agricultural sector for the 10-year period.
The demand for agricultural products remains set at slightly reduced rates of growth. An increasing urbanization, rising incomes, changing eating habits contribute sugar and fat contents to a shift to higher-quality foods with higher protein.
The demand from the biofuel sector should receive a new boost in particular in the developing countries in the next decade.
For the next 10 years, so the raw material production for food gaining an increasing animal husbandry and bio-energy will rise more than for direct human consumption. Wheat and rice are increasingly make room for feed grain and oilseeds.
Agricultural sites with high availability of soil and water, as well as low environmental protection regulations will have above-average growth rates. These include 1. Line South American and African regions.
Agricultural trade continues to grow, because in site-favoured agricultural surplus regions the need for food for well-funded importing countries must be created. The current high growth rates of Chinese agricultural imports will slow down but in the course of time.
Recently high agricultural prices should in the next few years some return, located above the level of the years before 2007 but move. In addition to the moderate reduction in the level of agricultural prices, an improved supply situation with sufficient inventories will contribute to less agricultural price fluctuations.
Grain prices will be rather below average due to the improved supply situation in the next 2 to 3 years. However, this applies only in so far as no larger harvest declines are increasing.
The prices for oilseeds will increase again in the next decade, because significant increase in demand in the field of human consumption, the industrial use of bio-fuels and the protein feed a growing livestock sector.
Import demand from certain Asian countries - China - above all and a rebuilding of the lower North American inventories allow meat prices rise significantly. It expects an above-average high beef prices in the next few years. The poultry meat sector will overtake the pig sector.
Prices for dairy products can not keep a very high level of in recent years as a result of rising productivity with less high consumption increases. Nevertheless, a good average price trend is expected, with butter listed significantly lower and cheese to have the highest growth rates. India is before the EU of the world's largest milk producer.
