We have to get us back to more moderate prices of grain? Grain prices have eased significantly in the last year. Will be for the new crop to be reckoned with far better rates according to current knowledge. Gone are the days of high grain prices? Looking back on the years 2002/03 to 2013/14 , you will see fluctuating prices on average high intensity. The means for U.S. wheat fob Gulf stood at €185 / t. The spectrum ranged from 130 to €260 / t. Here, a close correlation between the supply situation is measured on the final stock numbers and prices to produce. For the 10-year period 2002/03 to 2012/13 were on average 330 million tonnes of grain per year superimposed. Based on the respective consumption a final inventory of almost 20% in a range of 17 to 24% is calculated. Supply numbers of over 20% clearly below-average rates are observed, including at prices far above the 200 €/ t brand go these values. The last 4 years the global end stocks are absolutely and relatively strong increase. The amounts reach the level again at the beginning of the 2nd millennium however with the difference, that stopped the relation to the consumption by 24% compared to 32% at the turn of the Millennium. Then listed the wheat prices by the 100 €/ t, today, there are approximately €135 / t. One is researching the causes of rising again recently closing stock is between production and consumption to distinguish. On the production side are a harvested area increased to around 10 million hectares and of 3.2 to determine at 3.7 t / ha higher yield . Both together provides an increase in harvest of 320 million tons compared to the average of the previous decade. No major crop failure in the central areas have occurred in the past four years. On the usage page , an increase of only 286 million tons is calculated for the same length of time. A key 2011 only even modestly rising consumption figures are reason of maize for the US bioethanol plants. In the previous corn between 8 to 12 million tonnes of annual consumption amounted to period from 2004 to 2010. Another important reason the less soaring animal figures are China in recent years, above all declining pork and poultry. Pricing is crucial, that the increase in inventories for the overwhelming part in China took place. However, China makes available its stocks for export. The leading export countries at world level , however, have about enough high export volumes, to cover the needs of importing countries. Increasing extent, the Black Sea countries come Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan to the previous main suppliers with large quantities at low prices. Should be aware of the high weather depending on the harvest results be. A conditionally approved crop failure in the US maize by 20% by La Niña will a crop loss by 75 million tonnes, of the global grain supply balance pushing down to barely average.
