Reduced crop expectations by 2015 in the Schwarzmeergegebiet
Russia and the Ukraine have taken steps to restrict the stormy export of grain from the countryside. From Feb. 1-15 collects an export tax of Russia and the Ukraine wants to agree with the grain traders on limiting the monthly export volumes.
The weak currencies of both countries favor exports, because competitive advantage compared to the competitors.
However, increased exports driving the domestic prices. High inflation rates are not desirable given an already achieved levels of 15 to 20%.
In addition to other influences put fears of a weak crop of 2015 behind these measures. To mitigate the consequences of a possible weak harvest, a sufficient surplus stock from old crop is a useful measure.
The reasons for the expectation of a significantly lower crop come in Russia by major agricultural consulting institutions. You point out that autumn order in wide areas as a result is there have been no drought partly to late. The estimates assume already a harvest decrease between 15% and 20% . Weak seed stands could be considered by the Dewinterizing affected. But the biggest fear is that - as in 2010 - a dry summer 2015 could follow. At that time Russia was forced to impose a complete freeze on export in the harvest stage. The worries are not unfounded, because the Black Sea region is haunted by a continental dry period with considerable regularity. The probability for 2015 is not underestimate.
In Ukraine , there are some weather-related impairments in the winter crops, are considered but not very severe. However, there are great concerns to the procurement resources such as seed, fertilizer, pesticides and fuel. The inflation rate from 15 to 20% raise purchase prices to soar. A financing with loans requires interest payments between 20 to 25%. In frequent cases, banks refuse credit because creditors can have insufficient collateral. Experts in the agricultural consulting institutions estimate therefore significant reductions in the use of yield-enhancing resources with the result that the Flächenerträge 2015 significantly below previous years remain.
The loss of Crimea and two breakaway Russian-dominated Eastern provinces represent has a particular problem.
Specific figures for a possible result of the harvest are not named. There are so far only orientation estimates.
An rough calculation indicates that the harvests from Russia and the Ukraine to 20 million. t could be lower. Of similar magnitude, then also the exports are likely to fall back. Offer reductions in this dimension develop a not inconsiderable price effectiveness.
