17.
08.15
15:53

Russia with high harvest but faltering exports

Despite adverse circumstances earned Russia a great grain harvest in 2015/16 Russia's grain harvest is now multiple to about 100 million tonnes estimated. The wheat crop is close to 60 million tonnes and the other cereals will provide over 40 million tons while the signs were anything but cheap.

The sow in the autumn of 2014 had suffered drought. It was feared that the thin stocks would be subject to high rates of Dewinterizing.  The weak purchasing power of the ruble and the difficult financial conditions of the farms should contribute for a reduced use of agronomic resources.  The estimates came from 80 to 90 million tonnes.

But a less severe winter, an early spring with sufficient rainfall in the main production areas of the southern district caused a necessary balance. The conditions were not as beneficial in the Volga district and in the Siberian part. The share of exports at the end of the 2014/15 marketing year has again improved the financial strength.

But the favorable conditions include a big Downer. The revamped export control presses on the export activities. Now exports about 60% on the previous year. The reason is in the calculation method of the exports, which allows no reliable advance deals with a highly volatile Ruble rate.  It can happen that contract still a profit calculation possible but, but is a completely different situation of the exchange rate at a later due date of the tax to be calculated.

An recalculation of the Russian export control in Vista is provided, but so far neither published nor approaches become visible as she should look in the future.

Russia's exports are temporally restricted, because over the winter period, the supply of the ports for months is interrupted. There is therefore always a priority for exports in the post-harvest - and Autumn period.

Price Russian exports can match still relative to the European and American competitors. However, the recent price reductions on the Paris stock exchange have contributed to an improved competitiveness of in particular of French exports. It will what benefits can be gained from it for new tenders in the coming weeks.

The export competition between Russia, the Ukraine and the EU is targeting the import regions along the Mediterranean coast of North Africa and the importing regions of the Middle East with a volume to 80 million t. Russian exports are estimated at 30 million tons. In the EU approximately 40 million should be exported. The Ukraine wants to send also 35 million tonnes in export. Ultimately, other countries on the waiting list are to want to take the one or the other opportunity.

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