Russia: expectations of a weak harvest in 2015/16
The Russian winter wheat acreage to harvest 2015 has been increased by 13%. The largest increase has been communicated in the Central District with a share of 16%. In the Southern District with a share of 26% of the winter wheat area, approximately 5% were ordered more surfaces and in the Volga district with a share of just under 20% grew the acreage by 6%.
But so high the reported acreage also may have failed, the persistent drought has delayed planting and crops are not accrued. The remaining stocks have developed weakly. Dewinterizing damage not detected yet given the high snowfall.
According to the Russian Ministry of agriculture believed, that an significant portion of the areas newly ordered must be. The summer crops are but only half as productive. Also lacks sufficient funds for seeds, fertilizer and pesticides. According to the reports the winter cereal crop to 40% should be reduced.
The entire Russian grain harvest estimates the Russian Ministry of agriculture in a range of 85 to 100 million t IN the compared to that amounted to the two previous harvests with 104 and 106 million tonnes.
The losses to be expected will have a strongly likely to on the grain export to book, because the own generation is being driven as a result of the import lock for Western food.
Under these circumstances, the export restrictions are understandable since the Feb 2015. Should the €35 t export taxes is not sufficient, measures will be tightened again.
However, there are still 2 million t under contract, which must still be handled in the rest of the year of the engineer.
The Ukraine, the 2.-most important grain exporting country of the Black Sea region is heard while of crop damage, but are the numbers of less serious. The orders of magnitude are estimated on a 10 to 15% loss.
It is assumed that the grain exports from the Black Sea region will be significantly lower in the years 2015/16. EU exports will start to feel it.
