Planned lifting Russian export tax - expected stronger wheat export
The Russian export tax imposed since 1 Feb 2015 of approx. €35 per t wheat will be verified in the course of the month of may 2015 and may be significantly reduced.
A deliberate reduction of exports should combat the inflation in the country, 1. Line is caused by the import ban on finished food products from Western countries. Also the weak winter sowing has played a not insignificant contribution. Fears of a poor harvest were filled with the result of a tight supply with multiple projections in 2015.
The increase in wheat exports has helped that Russian exports by 2015 are since Feb fell almost 60% compared to the previous year . Just a little more than 1 million tons of wheat were shipped since then.
Should the export tax is actually dropped in full, Russian export prices will be among the cheapest in the world. Thus, the previously high competitiveness of the EU is undermined.
The rethinking of the Russian Government has its background in a lower assessment of the coming harvest carried out than in the past. There have been above-average Dewinterizing damage are no. Favorable rainfall have significantly improved the seed level in recent years. Previous crop estimates in the range of 85 million tonnes have given way to recent forecasts of between 90 to 100 million tonnes. The harvest of the previous year amounted to around 105 million tonnes.
The weather, however, is not everything. The financing problem of Russian enterprises for the significantly verteuerten resources will help earnings potential is not fully exploited. A readmission of exports could rinse urgently used money in the coffers, is the hope of the political leaders. Late but a bit (too)!
For the EU , the change means a limitation of competition the previously brisk exports of Russian export policy. The current price declines may be increased again in this way.
