The role of Russia in the grain trade by 2015/16?
From grain this year Russia has must no later than Feb 2015 its exports with the help of a drastic export tax stop after large initial impetus from the 1st. The strong devaluation of the rouble made enormously competitive Russian export grain. However, the strong sales abroad increased the domestic goods. She already threatened high inflation rates in the food goods through the import halt of food at the time to get out of hand.
The share of exports in recent years is based on the assumption of a large Russian harvest, which should remain only slightly behind the previous year's record result back with 100 million tonnes . The high expectations for a large crop have been developed due to a favourable development of spring with sufficient rainfall, were forgotten in the autumn of 2014 the order problems. The financing problems in procuring resources due to high inflation rates, by political leaders less noted, are considered by leading consulting institutions of Russian agriculture. The harvest estimates range between 90 and 95 million tonnes.
The actual result of the harvest the grain formation stage in the months of June-July plays a decisive role. Where are the water conditions of central importance. The present measures show that in Central growing regions of Central Russia, in the Southern District, in the North Caucasus region and in the Volga region the soil moisture percentages are only at 40%. The values are also in certain rooms.
The monthlong weather forecasts for the Russian wheat growing areas show a season period from the second week of June. If no sufficient rain should fall, grain training at the expense of the hectare will be weaker, than was previously thought. Such weather developments are known under the keyword of continental climate with hot dry summers. This phenomenon in certain regularity occurs in Russia. The last dramatic case was 2010 the halving of average crops.
A significant reduction in the Russian harvest would have far-reaching consequences for the export. The current laws in force export tax starts from an export price level of €210 per t. This price mark is exceeded, a progressive flow price process could evolve. Rising prices are driven by rising export taxes in the height even further.
The close relationship between the Black Sea export territories and export States competing for the importing countries on the coast of North Africa and the Middle East could present themselves in a different light. The weakness of the euro affected sufficient competitiveness of U.S. exports, so that more than previously forecast, EU exports can assume greater dimensions.
The high degree of unpredictable weather dependency in a El Niño year can lead to significant price changes in the next few weeks and months.
