09.
03.16
15:12

Same high grain harvest 2016/17 as estimated in the previous year

European Commission: EU cereal harvest total 2016/17 similarly as in the previous year, but...

The recent estimate of the EU Commission to the upcoming grain harvest in 2016/17 should fail in the total with approximately 310,6 million tonnes only slightly larger than last year's result with 309,3 million tonnes.  The acreage to 1.1 million hectares to be smaller, the average Flächenertrag however rise from 5.3 to 5.5 t / ha.

But results in the somewhat reduced amount of overlay of 45.5 Mio.t that the total offer of initial stock and crop up consistently is estimated at 372,2 million tonnes.

The harvest volume to put together differently than in the previous year. A significantly reduced wheat crop of 151 million tonnes (last year 159.3 million tonnes) is partially offset by a higher corn crop with 67 million tonnes (previous year 56 million tonnes). Results for the other types of grain should be slightly lower.

Is a slightly increasing consumption of 283.7 million tonnes (previous year 282,9 million tonnes) compared to. The consumption increases are set both at the human nutrition, industrial use and mainly in the food sector.

Exports are significantly lower estimated with 39.8 million tonnes compared to the current year with 43.8 million tonnes. In the face of an expected fall in exports of Ukraine - as a direct competitor - anything could change in this assessment.

The accounting result 2016/17 is a rising end inventory on 48.6 million, or 17.1% of consumption. In the current year, the number of supply is 16.1%.  In the year 2009/10 the total number amounted to 19.6% and 10.6% in 2012/13. The EU grain supply should be according to the EU Commission estimate in the upper midfield.

The price action depends not only on the domestic supply, but is significantly determined by the world market. Therefore, it would be premature to predict any prices given the influence of pending weather risks on yield.

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