16.
03.15
17:28

Ukraine: grain stocks as inflation protection - expectation low grain harvest 2015

Different assessments of the crop by 2015 in the Ukraine

With date to March 1, 2015, just under 19 million tonnes from the large crop should be according to official findings in the Ukraine 2014 amounting to approximately 64 million tonnes. This stock is more than 20% higher compared to the previous year. Background for the restrained sales activity is the high inflation rate in the country, causing the farmer to use the grain as a hedge for the decline in value of the Ukrainian currency.  Financial needs will provide in the coming months but for the spring sowing more movement. The weak Ukrainian currency, which favours the export serves as lock tool.  Export restrictions are, to secure the power supply.

For the upcoming harvest estimates, increase but with very different results between the official and private institutions. The Ukrainian agricultural Club (UACB) assumes % less compared to the previous year by a smaller acreage nearly 18 million hectares or - 2.4. The Flächenerträge should be significantly lower due to weak stocks and reduced farming intensity.

Many agricultural enterprises were financially so strained, that will save on the usage of fertilizers and plant protection at the expense of the yield. The weak purchasing power of the currency have increased up to 50% (imported) resources. Banks deny loans partly.

The UACB estimates the entire Ukrainian grain harvest by 2015 to around 50 million tonnes, of which just under half on corn and more 20 million tonnes for wheat.

The consultancy AgrUkrConsult presented similar arguments and assessments already a few weeks ago.  In contrast to Russia, the authorities of the Ukraine hold back. The speech is also by a decline in the harvest results, but it refers to the still early date establishing forecasts. The dominant maize cultivation takes place only in a month. On the other hand, it is known that this fruit is especially costly. Seeds, fertilizers and plant protection must be obtained partly with currency-related high expenses from abroad.

Ukraine belongs to the strong export countries on the Black Sea with more than half of the production for export. For importing countries are also the Ukrainian shopping prices of importance.  A failure is clearly noticeable in the world market.

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