Sep 2020: USDA corrects world grain supply 2020/21 In its 4th estimate of global grain supply 2020/21, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) corrects production to 2,230 million t. This result is 2.8% above the previous year. On the consumption side, 2,211 million t or an increase of 2% are predicted. This results in final stocks of 666 million t. The worldwide supply number increases from 28.9 to 29.7% final inventory for consumption. Compared to the previous month, corrections upwards and downwards have been made in some growing areas. On average, the world harvest is estimated to be slightly lower in the current edition. China has more than half of the world's grain stocks, but this year due to storms it has to lower its reserves and add approx. Buy 25 million tons of grain. The supply number o. China increases slightly to 17.4% final inventory for consumption. The USDA increases global wheat production to 770 million t.Increases are, Canada (+ 5%), India (+ 3.4%) and Russia (+ 6.7%) predicted particularly in Australia (+ 25%). Reduced harvests in the EU (-9%), Ukraine (-9%), North Africa (-5.5%) and the USA (-2.2%) partially offset the production increases. Wheat consumption is estimated at a slightly increasing 751 million t. The global end stocks grow by 6.8% to 319 million t. Without China, the overhang amounts are only half as high, but are increasing by a similar extent. The wheat stocks excluding China are sufficient for 91 days (previous year 85 days). With an export share of 20%, Russia holds its position at the top of world trade , far ahead of the USA, Canada and the EU. On the import side, there are little changes in North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which together represent approx.Claim 40% of global imports. The USDA is cutting global corn production by 0.7% to 1,162 million t compared to the previous month. The main cause is the US corn harvest , which is estimated to be 10 million t lower than the previous month due to severe weather and drought damage. A harvest increase in the EU and Ukraine is revised downwards. In contrast, the Brazilian corn harvest is expected to increase in the first half of 2021. Global corn consumption is estimated unchanged from the previous month at 1,165 million t. The USDA assumes that corn use for bioethanol production will stabilize again in the coming marketing year. Higher consumption levels are also anticipated in the feed sector. The global inventories of corn are of 317 t decreased to 307 million. and without China are enough for 48 days compared to 45 days in the previous year. The supply situation in the maize sector will be just as tight as in the previous year, although a balance can be expected with feed wheat.For the EU-28 , the USDA estimates a total harvest of 298 million t, of which 136 million t is wheat. Union exports are expected to drop from 48 to 35 million t. The imports should remain largely the same. The USDA calculates the EU surplus stocks at approx. 28 million tons. almost unchanged from the previous year. At the same time, the umbrella organization of European farmers' and cooperative associations (COPA / COCEGA) published an estimate of the EU-28 harvest of 299.6 million t , which is 22 million t lower than in the previous year. COPA / COCEGA estimates the wheat harvest to be only 135 million t (previous year 155 million t). In an initial reaction, wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell to € 166 / t, while US corn prices rose to € 121.4 / t. In Paris , wheat prices fell by € 1 / t to € 188.50 / t, while corn prices rose slightly to € 168.25 / t.
