USDA estimates a 2016/17 higher world grain crop - yielding grain prices? In the most recent estimates for the World grain harvest 2016/17 is the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) on a production lot of 2.033 million tonnes, which precipitates to 44 million tonnes higher than last year. The world consumption is estimated at 58 million tonnes higher to 2,022 million tonnes. In the food sector, the increase should be only 23 million tonnes. A nearly equal amount goes into immediate human consumption. With high initial levels, a further increase of surplus stocks is calculated at the end of the marketing year. The supply number remains with 24.6% closing stock of consumption at approximately the same level as in the previous year. If the estimates are correct, a similar market situation and price level would be to be expected as in the expiring year. Given the pending income crucial growth stages are to handle the estimated figures with caution. Should also note on the Chinaeffeknot miss t. Of the stock gains in the world amounting to just under 12 million tonnes, 13 million tonnes accounts for solely on China. The Chinese export is meaningless but all over the world and comes for the supply of the rest of the world not taken into consideration. In the case of the global wheat market the USDA to 730 million tonnes or about 4 million metric tons comes less than 2015/16. However, the opening balance increased by 25 million tonnes contributes that the offer from crop and surplus inventory is big enough. The consumption is estimated at 8 million tons higher. At the end of the marketing year, the stocks again to 14 million tonnes to rise to 257 million tonnes. So that one would be far above-average supply situation in the wheat market given with the result that prices must tend significantly lower than in the previous year. Wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell in direct response to the published estimate, while the rates in Paris showed little change. At the closer look however it is noted that it once again is China , which tops up its wheat stocks to about 22 million tonnes despite efforts to surplus reduction. Excluding China due to minimal involvement of world trade from the supply Bill, which falls as a result storage location for the rest of the world to 7 million tonnes of wheat low from. In the case of the Corn market the USDA estimated a crop of approximately 45 million tonnes higher for 2016/17. Almost exactly that amount, the increase in consumption is classified. The closing stock should decline slightly. The supply number of closing stock consumption falls by 1 percentage point. This could be a signal for stable corn prices. As a result of significantly lower minimum prices increases maize consumption to 10 million t. t China and breaks down the excessive inventories to 8 million t.. The Chinese surplus be able to stay still with 42% of the consumption. In the higher crops by 2.5 million tonnes are expected in the average leading exporting countries . Are weaker harvest results in major importing countries in the order of 5 million tonnes. For the EU estimates 7 million t higher grain harvest is the USDA a 2016/17 318 million tonnes. A higher consumption and higher export volumes ensure that the closing stock is again slightly fail. However, the recent weather events not yet in full extent are included in the USDA estimate. While earnings due to too much rain are expected in France and southern Germany, a clear lack of rain in the North-Eastern Laender about Poland is up into Russia. Good crops to grow in Spain and on the West coast of France. Conclusion: the USDA estimate provides new orientation values, whose binding nature is still low. In Chicago, wheat prices eased while maize prices could just claim. It remains open to what extent attributable to the currently weaker quotes on the usual weekend windfall. Little changed in Paris at the market prices. More performance will be significantly determined by the changing weather developments
