USDA cuts world grain harvest compared to previous month's estimate - stocks are falling In its latest publication, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the world grain harvest in 2021/22 to be 2,261 million t lower. Worldwide consumption is estimated at 2,272 million t. As a result, stocks will be reduced significantly to 590 million t. The supply figure sinks to 26% final inventory for consumption, excluding China to below 14%. This corresponds to the market conditions that prevailed in the years 2013 to 2015 with above-average prices. The harvests in Russia with -15% (-12.5 million t), Canada with -24% (-7.5 million t), the USA with -3% (-11 million t) contributed. The causes in North America lie in the unfavorable weather conditions with too little precipitation and high temperatures. In Russia, there is now also known winter damage.In contrast, the harvests in Australia increased by 10% (+2 million t) and in the Ukraine by 7% (+5 million t). The result for the EU-27 changes only marginally. The estimate of the global wheat harvest falls to 777 mln t and is still slightly above the previous year's result. However, worldwide consumption is estimated at 787 million t . The consequence is a sensitive reduction in stocks (without China) to the supply figure of 21.5% final stock to consumption (previous year 22.7%). The export volumes of the world's largest exporting countries fall in Canada by -24% (-5.5 million tons), in Russia by -13% (-5% million tons). In contrast, increasing export volumes are expected in the Ukraine (+2.5 million t), Australia (+1.5 million t) and the EU-27 (+1 million t). The corn harvest will decrease by -8 million t to 1.186 million t was taken back on the previous month, but is still +6% above the previous year's result. Consumption will be reduced insignificantly to 1,182 million t. The supply situation has only decreased slightly compared to the weak previous year. Compared to previous years, stocks in the maize sector remain rather scarce. The US harvest made a significant contribution to the decline in production with a reduced 375 million t (-10 million t compared to the previous month). The cause is the persistent drought in parts of the growing regions of the Midwest. The estimate of the maize harvest is still on shaky ground. In particular, the US harvest, with its 33% share of world production and export, can still contribute to considerable changes in the supply situation. There are also aftereffects from Brazil's weak maize harvest in the past with a 35% decline in exports, while for the coming year an increase of +15 to 20% is calculated, but the sowing has not yet taken place.The USDA report contributed to a price rally in Chicago . The rate for September wheat rose to € 235 / t. The December prices for corn hovered around the barely changed € 190 / t mark. The Paris stock exchange reacted a little more cautiously. Wheat is quoted at around € 250 / t and corn increases slightly to over € 220 / t.
