USDA estimates world grain harvest higher than last year In its latest September 23 issue, the US Department of Agriculture estimates world grain production to be higher at around 2,283 million t (previous year 2,237 million t). However, different results emerge for the individual grain sectors. The global wheat harvest is estimated to be 3 million tonnes lower at around 787 million tonnes. Russian production is around 7 million tonnes lower than the record result in the previous year. Australia is suffering from the dry El Niño weather with a reduced harvest of -13 million tonnes. Canada's wheat production remains behind the previous year by around 3 million tonnes. This contrasts with increasing harvests in India with +9 million t and Argentina with +6 million t. The USA also expects an increase of +3 million t to an average of 47 million t. The global corn harvest is estimated at 1,214 million t compared to 1,155 million t last year. Better results are expected in Argentina with +20 million t, while Brazil will lose 8 million t. For the USA, the USDA estimates corn production at 384 million tonnes, significantly higher than in the previous year. Global grain consumption will increase to 2.280 million t (previous year 2,252 million t) increase The use of wheat remains largely constant while the demand for feed grain increases significantly and largely uses up the increase in production. In view of the increased crude oil prices, the use of corn plays a large part in bioethanol production. Inventories are only increasing slightly. The supply figure changes only slightly to 26.2% ending inventory for consumption. This could help stabilize prices. Nevertheless, the uncertainty remains due to the unresolved problems of Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea and via the Eastern European land route. You should also not lose sight of the El Niño weather.
