USDA estimates 2023/24 grain harvest little changed

Third USDA estimate for the 2023/24 global grain market In its July issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) corrected the global grain supply for 2023/24 in only a few positions compared to the previous month. Global production will be reduced slightly to 2,310 million t. The USDA estimates consumption at 2,296 million t. This calculates to a small increase in inventories. The price-determining supply figure increases minimally to 26.4% ending stock to consumption (including China). The range of inventories increases to 97 days (previous year 92 days). Excluding China, the inventory build-up is slightly larger. Forecasts for the world harvest 2023/24:

In the case of wheat , the USDA forecasts world production of around 796.7 million t for 2023/24 (previous year 790 million t). Consumption is estimated at 799 million t. As a result, a slight reduction in inventories is expected.Month-on-month comparison: The most recent changes from the previous month relate to the US wheat harvest, which improved by +2 million tons to 47.3 million tons as a result of higher yields from winter wheat, around 60% of which has been harvested. In contrast, the Canadian wheat harvest is down by - 2 million t as a result of the drought. Argentinian wheat also fell by -2 million t to 17.5 million t. The July estimates in the other main production/export areas remain unchanged. In comparison to the previous year : In the Ukraine, the wheat harvest is estimated to be lower from 21.5 to 17.5 million tons. Russia, too, will only harvest 85 million tons of wheat instead of last year's 92 million tons due to reduced acreage and only average yield expectations. After 2 record years, 29 million t are expected in Australia under La Niña conditions, 10 million t less. expected. Wheat production in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 4 million, as will exports.With the expected drop in exports from the Black Sea regions, international grain trade will be around 3% lower. A restriction on imports is expected for China in particular. Overall, the global wheat market remains only just averagely supplied. After a month-long decline , prices on the stock exchanges have entered a stabilization phase. The USDA figures provide a brief dampener. The uncertainties surrounding the extension of the Black Sea Agreement are causing renewed fear of supply. The USDA estimates the world corn harvest to be little changed at 1,224 million t (previous year 1,150 million t). This contrasts with a stable consumption of 1,206 million t, so that an increase in stocks is expected. The range of inventories is calculated at an unchanged 95 days. However, different results are expected at the individual locations. Again it is Ukraine , whose corn production is expected to be -2 million t lower at 25 million t. In the pre-war year it was still 42 million t.On the other hand, an increase is predicted in the USA due to expanded acreage and good average yield expectations. After the catastrophic previous year with only 34 million tons, the Argentine corn harvest is expected to increase again to an average level of 54 million tons. After the weak previous year, an average harvest result is also expected for the EU-27 in 2022. With changes in the flow of goods , global corn trade is expected to increase significantly again in 2023 by +8%. The two largest exporters, Brazil (55 million t) and the USA (53 million t), together account for around 55% of world trade. On the import side, China (23 million t), the EU (24 million t), Mexico (18 million t) and Japan (15.5 million t) are in the lead. After a short breather, the prices for corn, which have recently fallen, have continued their downward trend for the time being.