- US estimate for the grain harvest 2021/22: no further price increases?
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its 1st estimate of the world grain supply in 2021/22. The first reactions were very cautious: the price increases so far should sufficiently reflect the scarcity situation. The USDA estimates the global total harvest 2.4% higher to 2,285 million t compared to the previous year. This is compared with a 3% increase in consumption to the amount of 2,278 million t. This results in a reduction in final stocks by around 3.5% to 590 million t. The decline is almost entirely due to China's falling inventories. The supply figures including China fall from 27.2% to 26% and without China from 15% to 13.7 % final inventory for consumption.This corresponds to the average supply situation for the years 20134 to 2014/15 with wheat prices at that time at almost € 200 / t. Under today's market conditions, especially with a new strong demand from China, the situation can be assessed more succinctly than the historical figures suggest. The USDA estimates the global wheat harvest at a record level of 789 million tons or 1.7% higher than in the previous year. The EU made a decisive contribution to this with an increase of 6.4% to 134 million t compared to the weak previous year. An increasing wheat harvest of 20.5 million t (previous year 17.6 million t) is forecast for Argentina. After the weak previous year, Ukraine should again reach 29 million t (previous year 25 million t). Weaker harvests in Australia Compared to the previous year's record result of 27 million t (previous year 33 million t) Canada's wheat harvest is also estimated to be lower : 32 million t compared to the previous year 35.2 million t.Contrary to earlier expectations, the Russian wheat harvest is expected to remain at 85 million tons. However, there are reports from Russia about a lower harvest due to the winter damage. The USDA estimates global wheat consumption to be the same as current production. This means that the global stocks remain arithmetically unchanged at 295 million t or 37.4% of the final stock for consumption. Increasing consumption figures are expected for the EU, India, Russia and Great Britain. In China , wheat consumption is expected to decline slightly. Without China , a supply figure of only 18.1% of the final stock for consumption is calculated. That is only in the narrow average range. Global wheat exports are expected to grow by 3.1%. This includes Russia with 40 million t, Ukraine with 20 million t.t, the EU with 33 million t, Australia with 21 million t and Argentina with 13 million t. Together these 5 regions account for almost two thirds of world trade in wheat. On the import side , Egypt leads the way with 13 million tonnes of wheat imports. This is followed by Indonesia with 11 million t, China and Turkey with a further 10 million t each. The USDA estimates global maize production to be 5 4% higher to 1,181 mln t compared to the previous year. The main driving force is the sharp rise in maize prices before the start of sowing. This applies in particular to the USA with an expected increase of 5.7% to 380 million t . In the Ukraine, too, the USDA expects a 24% increase to 37.5 million t . In China , the corn harvest is expected to increase by 8 million t to 268 million t. However, the corn harvests in Brazil are only estimated at 118 million.t appreciated after a late seeding after the previous crop soybean now even prolonged drought severely affected the growth. The final word has not yet been said about the Brazilian harvest result. According to US estimates, global corn consumption is expected to be 1,181 million t below production. This results in increasing final stocks from 283.5 to 292.3 million t. or a worldwide coverage rate of 24.7%. Without China , however, the standard of supply is only 10.6% of the final stock to consumption and is thus close to the average. Compared to earlier estimates by other institutions, however, the result is somewhat better. However, there are still considerable risks to be overcome until the harvest in autumn 2021. The USDA increases global corn exports by 6.7%.The South American countries Brazil (40 million t ) and Argentina with 38 million t have the largest share in the increase. Then comes the Ukraine with 30.5 million t. The US is to reduce its corn exports from 70 million tons last year to 62 million tons this year . On the import side, China dominates with a rising import volume of 103 million t or 60% of world trade. After a brief interim high of the equivalent of € 230 / t, the stock exchange prices in Chicago are now back at € 220 / t wheat . The corn prices have fallen to the equivalent of € 245.3 / t. For the EU-27 , the USDA estimates a total harvest of around 288 million t , of which 134 million t is wheat. In the previous year, the comparable EU-27 harvest was 279 million t, including 126 million t of wheat. With a similar increase in consumption , the final stocks change only insignificantly.The tight supply situation should continue.
