USDA Mar 2021 Estimate of Grain Supply Balances - Few Changes The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) only marginally increased global grain supply in its March 2021 issue. Production in 2020/21 will be 2,221.6 million t; consumption is estimated at 2,224.4 million t. This means that the calculated final stocks (EB) fall to 619.7 million t or a slightly lower 27.7% of consumption compared to previous values of 30%. The high but unavailable Chinese final stocks are regularly subtracted, so that a price-determining supply figure of 15.1% EB for consumption without China comes out. The result is 1.5 percentage points below the previous year and just below the multi-year averages. In the case of the wheat supply , the bottom line was corrected. A production of 776.8 million t contrasts with an expected consumption of 775.89 million t.The inventory at the end of the marketing year is declining, but still remains above the 300 million t mark of the previous years. The maize supply , on the other hand, is to be assessed more critically. An estimated production of 1,136 million t is compared with an expected consumption of 1,151.8 million t. At 287.7 million t , the stocks have fallen considerably below the previous levels of 300 to 350 million. If you factor out the Chinese quantities that are not available for the rest of the world, then only 91.5 million t remain for any uncertainties in supply until the new marketing year. The remaining harvest risks in South America must be taken into account. In Brazil, maize is currently being delayed as a catch crop after soy. The USDA left the Brazilian harvest estimate unchanged at 109 mln t . There is still considerable potential for risk in this.In addition, there is the unabated high import behavior of China with an expected 24 million t or a tripling compared to the previous year. The expectations of the exchange participants were set up for significantly tight USDA supply figures. Accordingly, the courses were in the run-up to publication. After a short period of weakness, wheat prices in Chicago have returned to around € 200 / t, corn prices have remained at € 183 / t. Wheat and corn have seen little change on the Paris Stock Exchange.
