USDA: Grain supply in FY 2021/22 only partially affected by war, but unfavorable prospects for 2022/23 In its March 2022 issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the world grain harvest 2021/22 to 2,277 million t somewhat compared to the previous month. The decisive factor was the record harvest in Australia, which is currently estimated to be 2.3 million t or 7% higher. Global consumption is corrected only slightly to 2,281 million t. Stocks were slightly reduced at around 607 million t. The supply figure remained unchanged at 26.6% of end stocks (previous year 27.1%) for consumption, without China it was down to 14.1%. Nothing has changed significantly in the tight supply situation that has persisted for several years. However, there are some corrections in global trade due to the war in Ukraine . However, the changes will remain manageable for the rest of the 2021/22 financial year because a large part of the trade flows have already been completed.In the case of Ukraine's exports , a decline of 10 million tons or 12% is predicted, with a focus on corn. For Russia , the USDA estimates export reductions of only 3 million tons of wheat . On the import side , losses are predicted for North African and Middle Eastern countries . Smaller import cuts in the case of wheat are expected for the EU-27. When assessing future market and price developments in the grain sector, the unfavorable prospects for the coming 2022/23 marketing year are becoming more and more important. However, only uncertain estimates are possible due to the uncertainty about the further progress of the war developments in Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the impaired spring work with regard to the ordering of summer seeds and fertilization and plant protection measures in the Ukraine.The workers, fuel, fertilizers and pesticides that were withdrawn for defense are missing. Only in the west and center of Ukraine is work still being done in the fields. Initial estimates assume that the average harvest will be halved, which is just enough for self-sufficiency. Exports are hardly possible anyway due to the destroyed port facilities. A full rebuild will take years. Russia , too, will not get away without significant restrictions in the grain sector. While fuel and fertilizer supplies are not a major problem, there is a lack of crop protection products sourced from the west . In addition, import restrictions in some countries are causing a reduction in the usual Russian export sales. On the stock exchanges , the USDA report initially led to a fall in the speculatively inflated wheat prices.In Chicago, wheat is currently trading at just under €400/t, while prices in Paris are at €380/t. In the case of corn, the low US prices at 270 €/t have been increased slightly. On the Paris Stock Exchange, slightly rising 350 €/t corn are traded. The later dates until autumn 2022 indicate lower prices, but remain well above the €250/t line.
