USDA: Virus-free global grain estimate - stock market prices with stabilizing tendencies The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has corrected the results of the previous months in a few areas in its monthly estimate of the global grain supply. However, the overall result remains virtually unchanged because the numbers cancel each other out. Expectations of major trend-setting corrections, possibly under the influence of the virus epidemics, were disappointed. The total harvest is still estimated at 2,167 million tons . The USDA forecasts consumption in the 2019/20 marketing year to an increased 2,178 million t . The current production and consumption move further apart compared to previous estimates, there is still a small shortage. Inventories drop from 630 to 614 million tonnes last year. Measured by consumption, the final stocks are still a good average 28.2%.Without China, the supply figure drops from 16.1% to 15.2% final stock for consumption ; that is only a narrow average. The effects of the virus epidemics were not discussed. Temporary disruptions in trading are not excluded. Fundamental distortions of market conditions are not addressed. The global wheat harvest remains at its highest level at 764 million tons. The catastrophic Australian harvest was reduced again to 15.2 million tons. The results in Argentina have been revised up slightly. India's wheat harvest reached a record level of 103.6 million tons. Worldwide wheat consumption was slightly increased to 755 million tonnes in 2019/20 compared to the previous month. 20 million t over the previous year. The global wheat stocks cut to the previous level increase from 278 to 287 million tons in this marketing year; measured by consumption, this is an above-average high of 38.4%.However, the wheat supply figure excluding China is only just 22.1% . This number plays a decisive role in the further development of wheat prices, because China's stocks are not available for world trade. In the case of the global maize harvest , the USDA estimates the harvest result at 1,112 million tonnes to be slightly higher than in the previous month, but remains at approx. 11 million t below the previous year's level. Consumption is rated at a significantly increased 1,135 million tonnes above the harvest result. This means that the shortfall from the reduction in inventories from 319 million to approx. 297 million tons will be disputed. The supply figure drops from 27.8 % to the current 26.1%. Without China , the final inventory falls from 12.3 to 11.4% of consumption, well below average. Grain trade in Europe should continue to see increased EU exports despite a rising euro exchange rate. EU exports are unchanged at approx. 42 millionestimated, while Russian exports are cut to 44 million t. The Russian leadership is concerned that self-sufficiency could be jeopardized . The EU overhang stocks drop from 30 to below average 26 million t. The price drops on the Chicago Stock Exchange have resumed under the shock effects of the coronavirus epidemic. The new USDA estimate may again help more fundamental factors to determine price developments. The Paris stock exchange followed the guidelines from Chicago, so that the wheat prices even fell below the line of € 180 / t . It can be assumed that the recovery trends in Chicago will also have an impact on EU prices.
