Weather forecasts for market forecasts - weather wins at prices The world-wide preview of the global cereal market of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on June 9, 2017 has not produced any significant changes to the results of the previous month. The reactions in the courses on the Chicago Stock Exchange were correspondingly low. On the other hand, the hot US weather forecasts triggered more movement with more than 35 degrees Celsius and a short soil moisture in the central cultivation areas of the USA. Drying periods in other regions of the world provide further background for a tense attention on the exchanges. The latest USDA estimate is almost unchanged from the previous month's estimate of a global grain yield of 2.050 million tonnes ,3% less than last year. On the consumption side, too, little change in the value of 2.084 million is predicted. The high initial amounts of 516 million . T is to be reduced to 482 million tonnes in the course of the financial year. This means that the price-determining supply code falls to 23% of the final stock. In the previous year, the figure was 24.7%. Given the long-term average of 22%, the global supply remains at an above-average rate. If, however, China were to have a global share of approx. 42% due to a lack of exports from the supply balance, the supply figure fell by a clear 1.7 percentage points behind the previous year.This will make storage for the rest of the world Below the multi-year average. However, in the case of a high initial level and the addition of crops, the scarcity will only become clearer in the course of the year. Worldwide , the USDA estimates slightly higher than the previous month at 739.5 million tonnes, but remains below the previous year's figure of -14 million tonnes. Global consumption remains unchanged at approx. 735 million t. The final balance increases to 261 million tonnes. The supply figure is 35.5% far above the average of the last few years. However, the Chinese effect is also limited here. The Chinese wheat stocks are higher than a whole harvest and reach 128 million tonnes. 49% of world stocks .In the coming year, the stocks in China alone will rise by approx. 17 million tonnes, while the global Increase only 5 million t. If one takes the China effect out of the global supply balance, the stockpile for the rest of the world is significantly worse than in previous years. The global corn harvest estimates the USDA at 1,032 million tonnes, approx. 35 million t less than in the previous year. At 1,062 million tonnes, consumption is expected to be 7 million tonnes higher. This results in a strong inventory reduction of 30 million tonnes or 13.5% to 194 million tonnes. This means that global corn supply falls to an average level.The two largest maize producers have a decisive share in the decline with a world market share of 35% and China with 22%. In the light of the experience gained over the last few years with regard to the ratio of the supply to the annual average price, it can be assumed that a reduction in the final stocks for consumption, and even more so without China, can provide an adequate justification for the increase in the cereals price level for the 2017/18 marketing year. The extent will depend substantially on the actual harvest result and the harvesting process.
