USDA corrects world grain supply only slightly compared to the previous month In its most recent February 2023 issue , the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only changed the estimates for the global grain supply situation in a few cases. Wheat Market:
- The Australian wheat harvest was increased to 38 million t (previous month 36.6 million t).
- The USDA now estimates the Russian wheat harvest at 92 million t (previous month 91 million t)
- Global wheat consumption will increase by 1.4 million t to 791.2 million t.
- Global wheat exports rise to almost 213 million t (previous month 211.6)
- Imports from Central and Southeast Asian countries will increase by 1 million tons
- EU wheat exports are expected to increase by +1 million t due to a lack of quality and exports by 0.5 million t (fodder).
- The ending stocks remain at 269 million t (without China almost 125 milliont)
Corn market with slightly bigger changes:
- Brazil is to increase its maize exports by 3 million tons to 50 million tons.
- Ukrainian corn exports are estimated to be +2 million t higher at 22.5 million t.
- Argentina's export expectations were reduced by -3 million t to 35 million t due to the drought.
- EU maize imports increased from 21.5 to 23.5 million tons.
- The global ending stocks fall by -1 million t to 295 million t (excluding China almost 88 million t)
Effects on stock exchange prices:
- On the Chicago stock exchange , the upward trend in wheat that has been going on for several days continued. In the case of corn, the trend is essentially stabilizing.
- After a long period of weakness, a more stable upward trend can be observed on the Paris stock exchange ; Wheat tends towards 295 €/t, corn is aiming for the 290 mark.
The global supply situation remains below average: The global supply figure remains well below previous values of 30% at 26.3% ending inventory to consumption; excluding China, the ending inventory falls to 13.4%. The overhang stocks in the major exporting countries have become remarkably tight, having fallen from the previous 160 million t to 120 million t. The inventories in the Ukraine and Russia have increased, but are not reliable delivery candidates. Decisive are the depleted US grain stocks.
