USDA long-term estimate of U.S. wheat and corn harvests, and price forecasts
In an earlier publication, the American Department of Agriculture presented his ideas about the future course of the wheat and corn harvest results . To understand that on the basis of consumption accounts offer imaginable price levels were derived, but only as the orientation line are.
After the record harvest of 2014/15, the estimators assume that a repeat of such an outcome is unlikely in the next year. Due to the competitive relationships between soybean and corn the corn acreage in the year 2015/16 1.2% will be less. The Flächenertrag in the corn to fall back again on average trend developments. The U.S. corn crop by 2015/16 should therefore to just 7% lower than in the previous year. The high initial stocks will drop but the corn offer less. An average supply position is calculated from the production and consumption estimates. Allow such a market situation after several years experience US producer prices to the 340 cents per bu or $133,5 je derive corn.
The following years were extrapolated based on the longstanding trend values. This resulted in only minor changes in terms of supply and price developments.
The previous rather weak years of wheat in the United States to recover already 2015/16 clearly, without however to regain the level of earlier decades. For 2015/16 is with a larger harvested area and better hectare yields of 4.2 / ha (previous year 3.95 t / ha) expected. The crop estimated 58 million tons is enough to meet the domestic demand of 33.5 million tons and increase wheat exports.
The the USDA estimates U.S. producer prices for wheat at $5 per bu or $183,7 per t in the average of the fiscal years 2015/16 again, the later years are the result of linear projections with subordinate reductions of wheat acreage at trend increasing Flächenerträgen. Domestic consumption increases only slightly, so that will be calculated with slightly increasing export volumes.
On the basis of supply figures are future U.S. wheat prices with $175 per t estimated lower than for the year 2015/16 the long-term forecasts of the USDA until end of February 2015 again revised and presented on the occasion of the traditional US agricultural forum in February 2015 . Experience has shown that major changes are not expected. But possible corrections for the coming year.
